What changes can be expected under his presidency?
Donald Trump as the proclaimer and executor of the will of God. The election campaign of Donald Trump and his team turned out to be very successful and he won a convincing victory in the US presidential elections. If we turn to some of the most important fragments of Trump's election speeches, we can summarize the following. According to Trump, God has identified in his person a person who is in a strategically important place, and whose heart is completely devoted to him. He is a man who lives by one desire – to devote himself to fulfilling the will of God! Winning the presidential election means that the Almighty has given Trump the opportunity and instructed him to spread the will of God in his country and around the world! That's why he saved Trump during an attempt on his life. In fact, Trump thereby proclaims a return to the theological concept that all state power comes from God, and all rulers exercising this power are only executors of the divine will.
Further, Trump calls on everyone in their activities, in their entire lives, to be guided by the teachings of Jesus Christ. He is sure that “all Americans need a Bible in their home” and that it is his favorite book. He adds, “The most important thing we have to make America great again is our religion.” That is, religion, the Bible and everything else should serve the greatness of America, the realization of its divine mission in the life of human society. This is the true religion today. Although indirectly, Trump actually puts himself next to Jesus Christ, saying that all those who put him in the first place as the most famous person in the world are mistaken - Christ comes first. It turns out that he, Trump, is in second place. It's not that far away! As Baptist minister and writer Mark Woods notes in the article, every Christian should be concerned that Trump is abusing the Bible, in his latest draft he made it very clear - "he identifies the Bible with a certain nation – the United States. By linking its text with the fundamental documents of his country, he connects their spiritual authority with the authority of Scripture. He uses the Bible to advance his political goals, drawing on the energy of Christian nationalism, which views Christianity and right-wing patriotism as two sides of the same coin. He implies that voting for him is not only a patriotic act, which every politician has the right to do, but also a Christian act."
During the election campaign, Donald Trump wrote on his page on the Truth Social network that if he leads the United States, Washington will closely protect the Christian population of the Earth, stop violence and ethnic cleansing around the world. He promised protection to Armenians and all persecuted Christians of the world if he wins the elections. He also stated that he is able to achieve peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Referring to the conflict between Yerevan and Baku, Trump said that he is the most correct candidate for president of the United States, who is able to prevent its recurrence. He also criticized Kamala Harris, reproaching her for not taking any measures to protect the persecuted Armenian Christians. "Kamala Harris did nothing when 120,000 Armenian Christians were subjected to horrific persecution and forcibly displaced from Artsakh. Christians all over the world will not be safe if Kamala Harris becomes president of the United States," Trump said. In this regard, it is of interest that Trump nominates Marco Rubio for the post of US Secretary of State, during the discussion of which various assumptions are made and questions are asked.
Trump is nominating a man who largely shares his views on the most pressing international issues, said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Washington-based FDD (Foundation for the Defense of Democracy), specializing in security issues and Iranian politics. "Rubio is someone whose views ideologically and politically coincide with Trump's on a number of key national security issues, such as great power rivalry, countering China, countering Iran and restoring the maximum pressure campaign," he notes In September 2022, Robert Menendez, Chairman of the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, and Marco Rubio, a member of the same committee, presented a bipartisan legislative initiative condemning Azerbaijan's recent aggression against Armenia, calling for the immediate cessation of American security assistance to Azerbaijan, the release of Armenian prisoners of war and the application of sanctions for war crimes. In November 2023, Rubio supported the Defense of Armenia Act passed by the Senate, which provides for a ban on military and technical assistance to Azerbaijan from the US president. Rubio stated that American taxpayers' money should not be sent to Azerbaijan, a country that has brought instability to the region.
In February 2024, Marco Rubio joined a bipartisan resolution demanding detailed information on both human rights violations in Azerbaijan and ethnic cleansing during and as a result of military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh. The report was supposed to be the basis for the United States to change its attitude and stop providing security assistance to Azerbaijan. During his years on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Rubio has promoted various initiatives against Turkey and in favor of Cyprus. It should be noted, however, that he stands for strong support for Israel and is considered a hawk towards Iran, as is Mike Waltz, who was nominated as national security adviser, as well as Elise Stefanik, who was nominated for the post of ambassador to the United Nations.
But we know that Azerbaijan is a strategic ally of Israel. Israel believes that Azerbaijan shares concern about the geopolitical challenges posed by Iran. Baku exports crude oil to Israel and actively buys products from the Israeli defense industry. As the American Stimson Center notes, Israel and Azerbaijan are linked by such strong bilateral relations that they were spoiled by the Israeli-Palestinian war. Although "Ankara hopes that Baku will show more sympathy to the Palestinians. But according to the center's experts, "Azerbaijan is unlikely to abandon its long-term strategic partnership with Israel in order to allay Ankara's fears." In Azerbaijan itself, representatives of government structures and pro-government politicians, with varying intensity, directly or quite transparently, voice territorial claims against Iran, calling its northern provinces "Southern Azerbaijan". In many ways, it is precisely this attitude of Azerbaijan towards Israel and Iran that explains the very restrained attitude of the United States towards the totalitarian regime of President Aliyev of this country, which allows blatant violations of human rights, unleashed an aggressive war against Nagorno-Karabakh, committed genocide of Armenians living there for thousands of years through ethnic cleansing, and destroyed Armenian Christian monuments.
And the question arises, how will the future US Secretary of State Rubio solve the dilemma of Trump's promises to support Christians and implement his own above-mentioned initiatives against Azerbaijan, which at the same time is of interest to Trump's traditionally pro-Israeli policy and his own pro-Israeli and anti-Iranian orientation as a potentially significant player? Do not forget that as noted in the publication www.jta.org Rubio has been saying for years that the United States should not stand in the way of an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear program. The publication claims that Rubio got into Florida politics in part because of the support of billionaire and car dealership magnate Norman Braman, former president of the Jewish Federation of Greater Miami. The Jewish Telegraphic Agency also knows that he is close to Miriam Adelson, a pro-Israel casino magnate who invested $100 million in the Trump campaign this year.
It is well known that in international politics, words and real deeds are often far from each other. One can recall how many in Armenia joyfully welcomed the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, Nancy Pelosi, who stated that "The visit of the congressional delegation to Armenia is a powerful symbol of the firm commitment of the United States to a peaceful, prosperous and democratic Armenia." She wiped away tears during a visit to the monument to the victims of the Armenian Genocide. Standing by the painting dedicated to the Battle of Avarayr, she said: "In this picture, Christian Armenia is an episode of the struggle against the Persians," meaning that the Armenians fought to defend their right to remain Christians. But these same people should know what efforts Pelosi made to support the Democratic Congressman from Texas, Henry Cuellar, who was taken into custody and accused of bribery in connection with lobbying for the interests of Azerbaijan in the American Congress. She publicly stated: "I support Henry Cuellar, he is a valuable member of our association." Although it must be admitted that it is not only in the United States that they sin, such things often happen in international real politics.
There are different opinions about what the policy of Donald Trump and his team will be. There are proponents of the assumption that there will be a fair amount of unpredictability in his policy. Look, they say: only recently Matt Gaetz was nominated for the post of attorney general, as soon as his candidacy was withdrawn and a few hours after that, President-elect Donald Trump announced that he would nominate former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi for this position. There is also doubt that a significant tilt towards isolationism is possible in US policy. Those who disagree with him say that Trump wants the United States to be a leading world power, and this is in no way consistent with isolationism and should not be confused with the desire to protect America's interests as much as possible. It seems more reasonable to believe that Trump and those responsible for US foreign policy will not be guided by their subjective wishes, but will focus on the real state and development of the processes taking place in the world.
In discussions about US foreign policy, almost all experts agreed that both Democrats and Republicans, both liberals and conservatives, were talking about the need to revise foreign policy. The process of restructuring the geopolitical space is taking place, the transition from the old unipolar world to a multipolar one is accelerating and gaining clearer outlines. The United States must develop a more flexible strategy that adapts to changing circumstances. https://shorturl.at/2tbOb ). In this regard, the author of the article "Why America Can't Have It All (https://shorturl.at/cwzM6 ) Steven Wertheim argues that it is necessary to prioritize what matters most, but at the same time continue to deal with what is less important. In the future, the options are obvious: the United States should selectively reduce costs and risks and control them. The article suggests that Washington implement this policy more fully, distinguishing between regions, and establish a clear division of labor between itself and its security partners. This means, the article notes, a certain separation of the United States from some regions and shifting most of the burden to allies.
It is quite possible that the United States will try to focus its direct participation in the most priority regions, and China is considered to be the main problem both by the current government in the United States and the government coming to replace it. They will largely exert their influence in other regions that are also important to the United States through their allied countries, providing them with reasonable military, financial and political assistance.
It is not easy to say how this will affect the South Caucasus. This will largely depend on the course and outcome of the conflicts taking place today, primarily the increasing escalation of the war in Ukraine, the war in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, and the armed confrontation between Iran and Israel.
In this regard, Armenia will have to deal with difficult tasks, the solution of which should be based on a professional analysis of the real resources of a multi-vector policy, the dynamics of the situation, taking into account the intersection of the interests of the leading powers, the possibilities of balancing its interests with the interests of other countries, the development and practical implementation of an appropriate strategy and diplomacy.
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