On the issue of the impossibility of combining Eurasian and European integration

  We present an article by political analyst, coordinator of the Eurasian Expert Club, candidate of philological sciences, associate professor of political science Aram Safaryan, in which he analyzed the issue of the impossibility of combining Eurasian and European integration.

Following the recent decision of the Armenian parliament to begin the process of membership in the European Union, the expert community is actively and interestedly discussing the statements of high-ranking Russian government officials and well-known theorists of Eurasian integration that it is impossible to simultaneously be a member of the Eurasian Economic Union and a member of the European Union. Thus, after 12 years, we are again warned that it is impossible to combine participation in two integration processes taking place in parallel in Europe and the post-Soviet space.

Here it is worth recalling 2012-2013, when the Armenian public opinion was also interested in and actively discussed this issue, on the basis of which the policy of Armenia's association with the EU or the country's membership in the Customs Union and the future EAEU was to be built. Then the author of these lines, as the chairman of the research and analytical public organization "Integration and Development", together with the former scientific and educational foundation "Noravank", conducted a large-scale sociological study on the attitude of Armenian society to European and Eurasian integration. According to this survey, 70% of the population of Armenia supported Armenia's participation in both European and Eurasian integrations.

In the event that combining these processes would be impossible, 70% of respondents preferred the country's membership in the Eurasian integration union. At that time, about 70% of the population associated their hopes for the restoration and development of Armenian industry with Russia. At the same time, more than 60% were in favor of development and cooperation with the European Union in the field of science and education.

In 2013, this sociological survey coincided with the visit of former Armenian President S. Sargsyan to Moscow and caused a lot of noise. Then, after a meeting with Russian President V. Putin, the Armenian president stated that Armenia was interested in joining the future Eurasian Economic Union. A rapid process of legal legislative integration into the space of the then Customs Union began. It is also worth recalling that this was unexpected for the civil society of Armenia, which was preparing for the country's association with the European Union and was expecting the adoption of the Comprehensive Association Agreement between the Republic of Armenia and the EU. At that time, European representatives clearly stated to us that it would be impossible to combine membership in the EAEU with association with the EU. These warnings did not please the Armenian society and caused irritation.

I t is also worth recalling that back in 2011, in his famous article in the Moscow newspaper Izvestia, V. Putin outlined his vision of the future Eurasian integration process, where, in particular, he also spoke about the possibility of creating a common integration space from Lisbon to Vladivostok. This meant that Russia sees its future in a common integration and civilizational space, including the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union. However, the global West, and, in particular, the European Union, responded to this vision of the Russian leader with an emphatic cold silence.

So, after short but heated discussions and debates regarding the country's membership in the EAEU in November 2014, the then Armenian government agreed to join this integration association. In parallel, consultations with the EU began, which led to the signing of the Comprehensive Partnership Agreement with the EU.

This was done so that the then powerful pro-Western political and public structures of Armenia would remain in the current socio-political space and their interests would not be infringed. Today, much in the situation with this issue brings to mind 2013-2014 (with the opposite sign).

Today we are dealing with a new situation in the public space, which, frankly speaking, does not so much affect real politics as it creates an atmosphere for modern local domestic political rhetoric. After the 44-day war in 2020 and the exodus of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh from their original places of residence in 2023. There is a surge of anti-Russian sentiment in Armenia, which has been skillfully used by pro-Western political forces and Western political strategists. Recent public opinion polls indicate that the majority of Armenian society today gravitates toward the United States and the European Union. About 30% of the population has a pro-Russian orientation and is oriented toward Russia. Pro-Western political parties in Armenia managed to easily collect 60 thousand signatures under the demand to hold a referendum on the country's membership in the EU.

And immediately sobering warnings were heard from the EAEU circles that it is impossible to combine participation in two integration processes. We, now from Moscow, have been made clear that the right to choose is up to Armenia, but the people of the country must know that in the event of movement towards the global West, it will be impossible to remain in the zone of Eurasian economic integration. Armenian society does not like these warnings. It is obvious that participation in the EAEU is absolutely beneficial for our country.

First of all, thanks to membership in this integration association, the Armenian economy has achieved success in recent years.

According to the results of 2024, GDP per capita is $8.5 thousand. This is approximately twice as much as 5 years ago. And this is a very good indicator even in comparison with some countries of southeastern Europe (by the way, candidates for membership in the EU). Armenia's GDP growth by the end of 2024 was 5.9%, which is also a very good result. Everyone understands that Armenia's economic success is primarily the result of Armenia's trade and economic cooperation with the Russian Federation.

Despite the military conflict in Ukraine, the Russian economy has registered an impressive growth of 4.1%, which is much higher than in the EU and the USA. Moreover, authoritative Western international rating agencies predict that in 2025 this growth will continue and be at least 3%. We know that forecasts have been made for the EAEU, according to which the indicators of trade and economic cooperation between Armenia and Russia will be somewhat reduced if the process of re-export of gold and precious stones, as well as other re-export items (in all cases related to Russia) stops. And yet, the same forecasts confirm that already in the next 2026 we will again be dealing with an increase in the volumes of all the main indicators of this economic cooperation, which is important for Armenia.

It is important to say here that even after the adoption of the above-mentioned law by the Armenian parliament, the cautious and balanced rhetoric towards our country has not changed in the European Union. Armenia is considered a partner with which it is necessary to develop cooperation in various sectors, but so far there is not a word about how to move towards the EU so as not to destroy the country's economy.

We also know that Armenian society is tired of waiting for decisive steps from Russia in the field of comprehensive integration. In all the years after the Soviet rule, the majority of Armenian society wanted to build such relations between the countries of the post-Soviet space that would lead to positive changes with the implementation of the best traditions of the former Soviet Union. However, this was not done and now the majority of modern Armenian society is looking for other guarantees of a good and stable life and new allies capable of securing the country.

It is appropriate to note that neither the United States (with which the Charter on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was signed) nor the EU (with whose leaders an exchange of views on Armenia's desire to join the membership process was certainly held) are ready to provide guarantees of security and peace, taking into account the complex realities in the South Caucasus.

It is clear that the Armenian government adopted this law based on its populist nature and emphatically pro-Western orientation. This is a requirement of modern public sentiment and we are dealing with a successful combination of the pro-Western sentiments of the ruling political class with the sentiments of the public majority. Any sociologist will notice that if today we are dealing with a radical change in public sentiment, then after some time these sentiments may change more than once. Thus, we understand that it is much more important to talk about the political activity of the authorities, about the state of the real economy, about the capabilities and desires of the main opposition pyramids of the country, than about the influence on public, sometimes irrational sentiments.

And the last thing. After returning from Riyadh, Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov, at a meeting with journalists, said that Russia will work towards creating a new integration association with the participation of the countries of Greater Eurasia. He also emphasized that Russia is beginning negotiations with the CIS and EAEU countries in this direction. I would like to remind you that back in 2015, Russian President V. Putin came up with the idea of ​​​​a Greater Eurasian Partnership. All these 10 years, Russia has been carefully but consistently promoting this concept. Now we are witnessing a new unification process in Greater Eurasia, where Russia and its allies in the post-Soviet space may act as the locomotive. It is difficult to say now how this process will develop and how it will influence the South Caucasus region. But it is obvious that in the coming years (before and after the 2026 elections) the Armenian government will limit itself to only theoretical, promising statements towards the European Union, but will not leave the integration space of post-Soviet countries and wait for impulses of influence on the South Caucasus region as a result of a new global dialogue between the USA and Russia.

Thus, we understand that the general contours of the rhetoric of combining integration processes for small Armenia, in the eyes of Armenian society, miraculously receive the right to take place, but on the condition that they do not lead to the destruction of already established economic ties and to the rejection of the obvious benefit of participation in the Eurasian integration process.